An excellent drawing of Martin Vidberg I recommend the blog: BREAKING NEWS IN POTATOES
is euphoria in the markets!
While the Paris stock exchange as all European stock and those of Tokyo and the Dow Jones responded very positively to the support plan implemented by States, concerns about the evolution of the real economy are growing:
last week it was the IMF forecasts :
institution directed by Dominique Strauss-Kahn expects a global GDP growth of 3% next year. The U.S. showed only a weak growth of 0.1% and does not "recover their growth potential in 2010. The euro zone will do little better with a GDP increase of just 0.2% next year and recession in many states.
IMF World Economic Outlook: synthesis
today: Figaro: Unedic expects 46,000 more unemployed in 2008
While she provided 80,000 unemployed less in 2008, unemployment insurance now expects numbers much less encouraging. The government will unveil a plan to use next week.
figures Unedic last June were too optimistic. Assuming a decrease in the number of unemployed in 2008 (80,000), unemployment insurance had not been right and now seriously reviewing its forecasts. Tuesday Unedic unveiled its latest estimates. Unemployment insurance provides for 46,000 more unemployed in 2008 and an accumulated deficit to 5.09 billion euros at year end. The cause of these new figures, the assumptions of job creation (43 000 today against 119,000 in June) and economic growth (1% against 1.7% three months), both revised downward.
One explanation for this rise in unemployment: On the website of Le Monde:
P Krugman: The Nobel Prize in Economics in 2008 suggests a likely global recession
"Even if we are allocating the credit market, we'll probably have a serious recession ahead of us" , says he. According to Pau Krugman, the crisis has already inflicted heavy damage to the economy world, including the real economy resulting in a strong "downward trend" . Earlier he had said at a news conference that the world was heading "a recession, probably longer, but perhaps not a collapse" .
More generally, he believes that "people who assured us that the market worked, the pursuit of profit always led to a positive result, were massively deceived " .
cons info on the site an even more virulent critic of B Setser:
We suggested that the risks had not disappeared but changed. In this massive and brutal "accordion fold" we are witnessing, the forms of money - deposits and savings - that we have conceded to the right and private interest now have an absolute privilege of freedom , were on the verge of losing all value. They had to seek refuge in extremis, with the only guarantee worth anything ultimately, the taxpayers' money and status. Thus, the potential bankruptcy of the debt has become one of the others, apparently putting an end to it panic. Moreover debts, however, we saved time. But the new situation - unheard of - which it is created. Each actor financial system totally dysfunctional, which should survive until now to have access to unrestricted funds distributed by the central banks, is now explicitly protected against bankruptcy. The states have therefore accepted in two stages to take the place of money markets moribund, then ensure that all the dead instead of living - do not shake, they are full of debt - remain alive. In other words, after the transfusion, admission to ICU. Well. Social Security finally reminds us its undeniable merits. She has avoided the widespread infarction. Several questions remain. When, how and under what conditions can we remove the probes of these critically ill patients who are likely to be a bit worried at the prospect of benefit once the benefits of fresh air and free competition of the "struggle for life" that As they were fond? And how much will this hospital? Should we also agree that are still paid dividends to shareholders of institutions that owe their survival to the community ? So, in summary, the themes that Brad Setser develops below. One last remark. Number of emerging nations have suffered this type of crisis. But never before - by far - the G7 had shown such magnanimity. For them, it was never intended to provide liquidity "unlimited" to help them through a bad patch, and the Argentines, just to name a few, it certainly remember very well. But without doubt this is an illustration of the theory of "comparative advantage". Finally
put mass rapid treatment was needed, nearly everyone agrees, but will it be enough, especially if it is suited not accompanied by structural measures that are not confined to a few codes good conduct?
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