LATEST FORECASTS FROM OECD ARE NOT PARTICULARLY OPTIMISTIC:
"The OECD appears to be in recession and unemployment is rising in many countries that comprise it. The OECD projections suggest a prolonged slowdown in activity, with a likely decline GDP ⅓ per cent in 2009 "
OECD continues:" but the uncertainties are significant, particularly as regards the depth and duration of the financial crisis, the main cause of this decline. In this respect, the forecasts assume a rapid absorption of extreme financial stress observed since mid-September, however, which would leave room for a long period of financial turmoil until the end of 2009, with a normalization then gradually . "Nevertheless
OECD recognizes that" forecasts are surrounded by considerable uncertainty. For 2009, the main risk is that of a more pronounced deterioration in economic conditions. In particular, the financial situation could take longer than expected to normalize, new financial institutions could find themselves on the brink of bankruptcy and emerging market economies could be hit hardest by the slowdown of world trade and a reassessment risk of foreign investors. "
But we can be optimistic:" However, the situation could grow significantly more favorable than expected. "
forecasters OECD after several years of excessive optimism does not recognize that they finally felt like Keynes expectations are never certain, and the margin of error is large
We can see that Keynesian ideas are experiencing a comeback : OECD calls itself "The cleanup of banks' balance sheets could be faster as a result of important and comprehensive measures taken by the authorities . Similarly, one can not exclude the adoption of stimulus larger than assumed in the forecast .
OECD goes even further: In this context of strong economic downturn, stimulus needed macroeconomic . Under normal circumstances, monetary policy, not fiscal policy, would be the instrument of choice, and we did take into account a further monetary easing. However, given the extreme financial pressures currently observed, the monetary transmission mechanism is probably less effective. Moreover, the United States and Japan, the flexibility to further reduce interest rates is limited. "In terms
Keynesian more could we not talk about the trap liquidity?
Finally we return to the old model, yet reviled since the 80s (Friedman, Thatcher and Reagan): "In this unusual situation , (it's true the economy is it not always at full employment ?) fiscal policy also has its place. We'll have to let automatic stabilizers play fully and in countries that have leeway on the budget plan, a discretionary easing of fiscal policy remains an important option in the short term. "
Beware the OECD does not yet give up his traditional speech:" However, it is essential that such a discretionary action to intervene in a timely and is temporary, and is designed for the sake of maximum efficiency . Tax cuts for households facing credit problems could, for example, be effective. Simultaneously, with high public debt in many OECD countries, it will also establish a credible framework for fiscal sustainability in the long term.
yet the situation is worrying réeellement the idea of regulation at international level; "We can not exclude that further measures may be necessary to stabilize financial markets. In this case, international cooperation is desirable to avoid any action that could distort competition or report problems on other countries . "
but there also are not mistaken this is temporary: " It is also important that these measures are designed and implemented so that it can be safely removed when the situation will normalize financial markets ."
to read the full: "Forecasts for the U.S., Japan and the euro area "
in addition to the website of Natixis: 14/11/2008 What the Research Service released this week.
What happened this week?: American risk vs. risk emerging recession in the euro zone, collapse of the pound sterling ...
Energy and Raw Materials: Towards a low growth in oil demand.
What about market trends? France: who can be surprised by the tightening of credit? ", 762, null) 'onmouseout =" Tooltip.hide ();"> Global recession, tighter credit conditions in France decline in GDP in the eurozone, British Pound ...
B Obama seems more pragmatic and ambitious in his first interview:
In the gallery: Barack Obama : all are good ways to counter the recession
"the government must take" all necessary steps to restart the economy and it will take spend money to stimulate the economy .
OECD continues:" but the uncertainties are significant, particularly as regards the depth and duration of the financial crisis, the main cause of this decline. In this respect, the forecasts assume a rapid absorption of extreme financial stress observed since mid-September, however, which would leave room for a long period of financial turmoil until the end of 2009, with a normalization then gradually . "Nevertheless
OECD recognizes that" forecasts are surrounded by considerable uncertainty. For 2009, the main risk is that of a more pronounced deterioration in economic conditions. In particular, the financial situation could take longer than expected to normalize, new financial institutions could find themselves on the brink of bankruptcy and emerging market economies could be hit hardest by the slowdown of world trade and a reassessment risk of foreign investors. "
But we can be optimistic:" However, the situation could grow significantly more favorable than expected. "
forecasters OECD after several years of excessive optimism does not recognize that they finally felt like Keynes expectations are never certain, and the margin of error is large
We can see that Keynesian ideas are experiencing a comeback : OECD calls itself "The cleanup of banks' balance sheets could be faster as a result of important and comprehensive measures taken by the authorities . Similarly, one can not exclude the adoption of stimulus larger than assumed in the forecast .
OECD goes even further: In this context of strong economic downturn, stimulus needed macroeconomic . Under normal circumstances, monetary policy, not fiscal policy, would be the instrument of choice, and we did take into account a further monetary easing. However, given the extreme financial pressures currently observed, the monetary transmission mechanism is probably less effective. Moreover, the United States and Japan, the flexibility to further reduce interest rates is limited. "In terms
Keynesian more could we not talk about the trap liquidity?
Finally we return to the old model, yet reviled since the 80s (Friedman, Thatcher and Reagan): "In this unusual situation , (it's true the economy is it not always at full employment ?) fiscal policy also has its place. We'll have to let automatic stabilizers play fully and in countries that have leeway on the budget plan, a discretionary easing of fiscal policy remains an important option in the short term. "
Beware the OECD does not yet give up his traditional speech:" However, it is essential that such a discretionary action to intervene in a timely and is temporary, and is designed for the sake of maximum efficiency . Tax cuts for households facing credit problems could, for example, be effective. Simultaneously, with high public debt in many OECD countries, it will also establish a credible framework for fiscal sustainability in the long term.
yet the situation is worrying réeellement the idea of regulation at international level; "We can not exclude that further measures may be necessary to stabilize financial markets. In this case, international cooperation is desirable to avoid any action that could distort competition or report problems on other countries . "
but there also are not mistaken this is temporary: " It is also important that these measures are designed and implemented so that it can be safely removed when the situation will normalize financial markets ."
to read the full: "Forecasts for the U.S., Japan and the euro area "
in addition to the website of Natixis: 14/11/2008 What the Research Service released this week.
What happened this week?: American risk vs. risk emerging recession in the euro zone, collapse of the pound sterling ...
Energy and Raw Materials: Towards a low growth in oil demand.
What about market trends? France: who can be surprised by the tightening of credit? ", 762, null) 'onmouseout =" Tooltip.hide ();"> Global recession, tighter credit conditions in France decline in GDP in the eurozone, British Pound ...
B Obama seems more pragmatic and ambitious in his first interview:
In the gallery: Barack Obama : all are good ways to counter the recession
"the government must take" all necessary steps to restart the economy and it will take spend money to stimulate the economy .
A statement which is close to the famous Roosevelt's New Deal and Keynesian economics, long hated by economists in vogue in Washington. But Barack Obama has defused criticism by asserting that the ultraconservative the financial crisis had prompted a consensus among economists on both left and right.
"We should not worry about the deficit this year or even next year" said the president elected at the interview.
* He also called "priority issue a "strengthening of financial sector regulation, including the lack of rule is often referred to as a catalyst for the crisis. However, he stated that" the answer (to the crisis, ie) is not a heavy regulation that would crush the spirit of enterprise and risk appetite.
a pragmatic president telling you I
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